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Řízení devizové expozice podniku
KRÁSNICKÁ, Martina
The first part of this dissertation, entitled Exchange Rate Exposure Management, addressed the question whether there has been a relationship between changes in exchange rate volatility and financial results of Czech enterprises and therefore foreign exchange exposure management is justified. For this purpose, the empirical data of revenues and exports and imports in CZ-NACE sections were used. Statistically significant results were demonstrated in the Section C - Manufacturing, where it was confirmed that profitability of sales declines with increasing volatility of the exchange rate. The nominal exchange rate CZK/EUR was taken into consideration, while a recent thesis (Klecka, 2016) showed that the use of another type of the exchange rate does not provide a statistically significant difference. In the second part a simple model called Estart was created in order to quantify the maximum impact of unexpected exchange rate changes in the profitability of a company and thus in order to start with the management of the exchange rate exposure. The formula for calculating exchange rate exposure is simple and requires only a few inputs as company total revenues, total expenses, the percentage of revenues in foreign currency and the percentage of expenditure in foreign currency. In order to quantify the maximum impact recommended percentage variations dependent on the time horizon were determined from the historical data of the exchange rate CZK/EUR. The company then receives initial information about the maximum impact of unexpected exchange rate change on their profitability and hence for example the potential maximum amount that makes sense to invest in exchange rate hedging. The model is also suitable for calculating the maximum impact for the specific payables and receivables. The Model Estart is for its simplicity usable particularly in small and medium-sized enterprises, which currently begin to address the question of the impact of exchange rate change on their profitability for example because of announcements of Czech National Bank concerning the end of the intervention that has been depreciating domestic currency since 2013 and also the complicated situation in the Eurozone. The next necessary step is to use more sophisticated methods in accordance with the principles of foreign exchange rate exposure management in order to quantify the impact of unexpected changes in the exchange rate on the profitability, respectively on the value of the company, mainly because of the management of the operational exposure, which is crucial and which is not addressed by this simple model.
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